Affordability and greater choice reshape SA’s vehicle market

An analysis of 2.56 million new and used vehicle finance applications processed by Absa Vehicle and Asset Finance (AVAF) between January 2023 and June 2026 shows that SUVs increased their share of the combined SUV, bakkie and body-on-frame SUV market from 60.2% in the second quarter of 2023 to 67.6% in the second quarter of 2026.

SUV applications grew 38% between 2023 and 2025, while bakkie and body-on-frame SUV volumes remained relatively stable. By the second quarter of 2026, bakkies accounted for 28.9% of the three segments analysed, compared with 36.3% three years earlier, while body-on-frame SUVs represented 3.6%, down from 5.0%.

This growth has been supported by stable SUV pricing. The average SUV finance application value increased by only 0.6%, from approximately R350 000 to R353 000, over the period. By comparison, the average bakkie application value rose by almost 20%, from approximately R375 000 to R448 000, while body-on-frame SUVs increased by 14% to approximately R564 000.

Chinese vehicle brands have played a significant role in this shift, increasing their share of SUV finance applications from 19% in 2023 to 40% in 2026. Their growing presence has introduced greater competition and helped to maintain accessible pricing in the SUV category. Chinese brands have also more than doubled their share of bakkie applications, from 4.4% to 11.2%, although established manufacturers continue to lead the segment.

Charl Potgieter, Managing Executive, Absa Vehicle and Asset Finance says, “South African consumers are increasingly assessing the overall value offered by a vehicle, including price, features and suitability for their lifestyle. Greater competition in the SUV segment is giving customers more choice at accessible price points and is changing the composition of the market.”

While overall bakkie volumes have remained relatively stable, the composition of the segment is changing. Double cabs now account for 65% of bakkie finance applications, up from 58% in 2023, reinforcing their position as the dominant bakkie configuration.

At the same time, the half-ton bakkie share has declined from approximately 15% to 7%. Customer transition data indicates that former half-ton owners generally did not move to larger bakkies. Instead, 49% moved outside the bakkie and SUV categories, with hatchbacks becoming the most common next purchase.

“The decline of the half-ton segment has created a clear affordability gap for customers who need practical, entry-level mobility. Many of these buyers are choosing hatchbacks, sedans and panel vans rather than moving into more expensive bakkies,” Charl adds.

Across the broader market, SUVs recorded the strongest customer retention, with 55% of existing SUV customers purchasing another SUV. Bakkie retention stood at 45%, while body-on-frame SUV customers were more evenly split between buying another body-on-frame SUV, moving to a bakkie or switching to an SUV.

“The traditional boundaries between vehicle categories are becoming less rigid,” he says. “A customer who arrives in one segment may leave in another, depending on what they can afford, the capability they need and the value available to them. Understanding what somebody currently drives is therefore only part of understanding what they may buy next.”

The analysis points to a market in which affordability, product availability and competition are becoming increasingly influential in vehicle-purchasing decisions.

For consumers, this means greater choice in the SUV category. For dealers and manufacturers, it signals the need to align stock, pricing and customer engagement strategies with rapidly changing demand.