These included a major ruling by the Supreme Court of the US that struck down key parts of President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, followed almost immediately by the announcement of a replacement tariff under a different legal mechanism. As reported by The Guardian, this ruling halted the collection of several tariffs that had been imposed on imports from countries including South Africa.

At the same time, the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) with SA included brought a measure of relief to exporters, even as uncertainty remained high.

For South African businesses, these developments have created a complex and volatile trading environment. Temporary legal reprieves, fresh tariff barriers and renewed trade preferences now sit alongside one another, making planning difficult and investment decisions more cautious.

Supreme Court ruling and the new tariff regime:

For exporters, this created a brief window of relief. US Customs and Border Protection stopped collecting the affected duties, allowing some shipments to enter the American market without the heavy additional costs imposed in 2025.

However, the reprieve was short lived. According to Reuters, the administration moved quickly to introduce a new global import tariff of 10 percent, later raised to 15 percent, under alternative legal authority in United States trade law. This new measure applies to imports from all countries, including South Africa.

For South African exporters, the practical outcome is that goods entering the US market continue to face higher costs. While the Supreme Court ruling removed one layer of tariffs, it has effectively been replaced by another.

AGOA renewed but with limits:

Alongside the tariff changes, another important development was the renewal of the AGOA, as reported by Reuters. This programme, first enacted in 2000, allows eligible Sub-Saharan African countries to export thousands of products to the US duty free. SA has long been one of the largest beneficiaries, exporting vehicles, components, agricultural produce, metals and beverages under AGOA preferences.

The renewal of AGOA was welcomed by government and business leaders in Pretoria. It provides political reassurance that South Africa remains part of the US preferential trade framework. However, the renewal comes with important limitations.

AGOA does not automatically override tariffs imposed under other US trade laws. In practice, even where products are eligible for duty free access under AGOA, they may still face new tariffs imposed through separate legal mechanisms. The programme also remains politically fragile, as the American Congress retains the power to revisit or amend it in future.

The impact beyond cars:

Public attention has largely focused on the impact of tariffs on South Africa’s automotive exports. However, the consequences extend far beyond vehicles and components.

Before the Supreme Court ruling, South African exporters faced tariffs of up to 30 percent on a wide range of products entering the United States. According to the Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa and Business Day, this affected vehicles and parts as well as wine, fruit, processed foods, metals and chemicals.

Automotive exports under severe pressure:

The automotive sector has been among the hardest hit. Before the tariffs, the US was a major destination for South African built vehicles and components, many of which entered the market duty free under AGOA.

According to naamsa | The Automotive Business Council of SA, vehicle exports to the US collapsed by more than 80 percent in key months of 2025. In the first quarter of that year alone, exports fell by approximately 73 percent year on year. Later months saw declines of between 80 and 85 percent.

Even with US tariffs, total South African vehicle exports in 2025 reached historic volumes globally of 414 268 vehicles. However, exports to North America were significantly reduced (from 25 554 to 6 530 units according to Business Day.

These figures point to a severe contraction in one of South Africa’s most important manufacturing export sectors. The industry employs hundreds of thousands of people directly and indirectly. Industry bodies have warned that prolonged tariff barriers threaten jobs, production volumes and future investment decisions.

Manufacturers and components most affected:

Several major manufacturers have been particularly exposed to the loss of US market access.

BMW South Africa previously exported the X3 model to the United States under AGOA preferences. Following the imposition of tariffs, these exports fell sharply during 2025.

Mercedes Benz South Africa, based in East London, had historically been one of the most exposed exporters to the US market, particularly with C Class vehicles. The tariffs led to a dramatic collapse in exports and forced production adjustments as orders from the US dried up.

Automotive components have also been badly hit. Catalytic converters were among South Africa’s largest component exports to the US by value in 2024. Engine and drivetrain parts, tyres and other supporting components were similarly affected. South African supplier firms, including automation and engineering companies have reported lost business and contract risks as American buyers seek cheaper alternatives.

What this means for SA:

The Supreme Court ruling provided temporary legal relief by halting the collection of the old tariffs, and the renewal of AGOA keeps South Africa within the US preferential trade framework. Both developments offer political reassurance and a basis for further engagement.

However, the challenges remain significant. The new 15 percent global tariff continues to raise costs for South African exporters. AGOA preferences do not automatically shield exporters from these new duties, weakening the practical value of the programme. Uncertainty around future legal and political developments in the US makes long term planning difficult.