Rise of China and South Africa’s potential

The rise of China forcing its way to be the world’s number one economic powerhouse is clearly visible in its automotive industry.

25naamsa SA China1

Data from the Automotive Business Council’s (naamsa) newly released Automotive Trade Manual 2025 shows us just what a force the Chinese automotive sector is in the world with leading sales and consumption and as the top manufacturer of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), especially Electric Vehicles (EVs).

Globally, the growth in EV production has been remarkable in recent years, as the industry has entered a period of transition, striving to reduce emissions and to meet the increasing demand for more sustainable transport options.

In 2024, 16 countries exceeded the one million vehicle production mark (ICE - Internal Combustion Engine and NEVs, comprising EVs and hybrids), which is regarded as the international benchmark.

China continued to strengthen its position as the world’s automotive powerhouse in 2024 owing to expanding EV production, with total vehicle production of 31.3 million units, comfortably remaining the world’s biggest market, followed by the US with 10.6 million units, Japan with 8.2 million units and India with 6 million units.

Roughly one in every five vehicles produced in 2023 was an EV according to the International Energy Agency, with the majority by far originating from China.

ICE vehicle production is starting to face challenges in China, with overcapacity at many plants, especially at non-Chinese OEM brands (Original Equipment Manufacturers). Another challenge within the Chinese automotive industry is that it is seeing a second wave of EV manufacturers, with several newcomers joining the market.

Three brands dominate the Chinese EV market, namely, Tesla, BYD and Seres, while 134 brands compete for balance of this highly competitive segment. Global NEV manufacturing capacity stood at more than 22 million units in 2024, with two-thirds in China, 20% in Europe, 10% in North America, and the remainder mainly in South Korea and Japan.

South Africa forms part of the group of global second-tier countries producing below one million vehicles per annum and although it’s manufacturing hybrids, it’s not building any EVs locally yet.

South Africa’s total vehicle production decreased by 5.2%, from 632 362 units in 2023 to 599 755 units in 2024 dipping under the total vehicle production of 1%. The maturity of the country’s automotive industry, its developed logistics infrastructure, and the mix of existing trade agreements with key economic centres and regions, all position South Africa favourably as a potential EV manufacturer.

Country

Total units produced 2023

Total units produced 2024

Passenger cars

Commercial vehicles

1. China

30 160 966

31 281 592

27 476 886

3 804 706

2. USA

10 639 140

10 562 188

1 432 615

9 129 573

3. Japan

8 998 538

8 234 681

7 139 188

1 095 493

4. India

5 852 143

6 014 691

4 991 413

1 023 278

5. Mexico

4 001 964

4 202 642

947 726

3 254 916

6. South Korea

4 243 597

4 127 252

3 849 326

277 926

7. Germany

4 109 371

4 069 222

4 069 222

-

8. Brazil

2 324 838

2 549 595

1 895 020

654 575

9. Spain

2 451 243

2 376 504

1 918 244

458 260

10. Thailand

1 834 986

1 468 997

549 752

919 245

11. Czech Republic

1 404 501

1 458 892

1 452 881

6 011

12. Turkey

1 468 393

1 365 296

904 513

460 783

13. Indonesia

1 395 717

1 196 664

1 026 976

169 688

14. France

1 505 079

1 357 701

910 243

447 458

15. Canada

1 553 758

1 342 647

217 344

1 125 303

16. Iran

1 089 827

1 077 839

977 776

100 063

17. Slovak Republic

1 080 000

993 000

993 000

-

18. Russia

729 680

982 665

753 754

228 911

19. UK

1 025 990

905 233

779 584

125 649

20. Malaysia

774 600

790 347

744 604

45 743

21. South Africa

632 362

599 754

350 384

249 370

Global

93 452 506

92 504 338

67 674 745

24 829 593

New energy vehicle sales in South Africa – 2020 to 2024

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Plug-in hybrids

131

54

126

368

738

Traditional hybrids

101

624

4 066

6 485

13 616

Battery electric vehicles

92

218

502

929*

1 257*

Total

324

896

4 694

7 782

15 611

Source: naamsa/Lightstone Auto

*Including heavy commercial vehicles

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