The next official adjustment takes effect on 6 May 2026 and reflects movements in international fuel markets over the past month, according to the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, which oversees the country’s regulated fuel pricing system. While prices are expected to rise, government intervention continues to play a significant role in limiting the impact, particularly for diesel.

Current inland prices remain elevated following April’s adjustment. Petrol (95 ULP) is trading at roughly R23.20 to R23.50 per litre, while diesel (0.05%) sits in a broader, unregulated range of about R24.00 to R26.00 per litre, depending on wholesale supply agreements.

LPGas, which is subject to a regulated maximum price, increased by just over R1.00 per kilogram in April and remains above R40/kg in many areas.

These prices already reflect a substantial tax break introduced by government. The General Fuel Levy, which normally adds more than R4.00 per litre to the price of petrol and just over R4.10 per litre to diesel, was reduced by R3.00 per litre in April as part of an emergency measure aimed at cushioning consumers from a surge in global oil prices, as outlined in recent policy communication from National Treasury.

For May, that relief remains fully in place for petrol, but diesel receives even greater support. Government has increased the diesel levy relief to R3.93 per litre, effectively offsetting the entire General Fuel Levy on diesel for the month. In practical terms, this means the state is not collecting meaningful levy revenue from diesel during this period in an effort to limit knock-on effects on transport, food prices and the broader economy, a move widely reported by Reuters.

As a result, the May fuel price adjustment is shaped primarily by external factors. South Africa’s fuel pricing system is based on an import parity model, which ties local prices closely to international product prices, shipping costs and the rand-dollar exchange rate, according to the Central Energy Fund.

Recent instability in the Middle East has added pressure to global oil markets, pushing up prices and increasing freight and insurance costs. Diesel, in particular, has been more volatile due to tighter global supply of refined fuel, which helps explain why government has chosen to extend additional relief specifically to diesel, as noted by the Fuel Industry Association of South Africa.

Looking ahead to the May adjustment, both petrol and diesel are still expected to increase, but the extent of those increases is being softened by the current levy relief. Without this intervention, prices would likely have been significantly higher.

The key point for motorists is that May’s adjustment remains largely market-driven. While government has stepped in to reduce the tax burden, it cannot fully shield consumers from global oil price movements and currency weakness.

For now, the combination of elevated international prices and a softer rand suggests continued upward pressure at the pumps, even with one of the most substantial temporary tax relief measures currently in place.

• Best-case scenario:
  If oil prices ease and the rand strengthens, increases could be relatively modest. Petrol may move to around R24.00 to R24.50 per litre, while diesel could remain in the region of R25.00 to R26.00 per litre, supported by the additional levy relief.
• Base-case scenario:
  If current conditions persist, with oil prices elevated and the rand under pressure, a more noticeable increase is likely. Petrol could rise to between R24.50 and R25.50 per litre, while diesel may trade in the range of R25.50 to R27.00 per litre, with government’s intervention limiting what would otherwise be a sharper increase.
• Worst-case scenario:
  If global oil prices rise further, particularly amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, and the rand weakens, prices could climb more sharply. Petrol could approach or exceed R26.00 per litre, while diesel may move towards R27.00 to R28.50 per litre, although still partially cushioned by the temporary removal of the levy.