The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products and was most recently re-authorised through 30 September 2025, faces an uncertain future as President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies cast doubt over renewal prospects.

The programme, dating from 2000, covers some 5 240 tariff items and was originally conceived under President Bill Clinton to foster economic development across sub-Saharan Africa whilst providing American lawmakers with a tool to counter Chinese influence on the continent.

Last week, delegations from Kenya and four other AGOA beneficiary nations travelled to Washington in a frantic attempt to secure a temporary one- or two-year extension, revealed Pankaj Bedi, chairman of apparel firm United Aryan, which supplies major American retailers, including Target and Walmart.

Bedi, who also serves on the Kenya Association of Manufacturers board, described a whirlwind week of more than 30 meetings with congressmen and their staff. Encouragingly, he reported universal support from both Republicans and Democrats, including aides to House Speaker Mike Johnson, for AGOA's renewal.

However, the critical challenge remains finding suitable legislation within the next fortnight to which an extension could be attached – a procedural hurdle that could prove insurmountable given the tight timeline.

The stakes could not be higher for African manufacturers. Without an extension, companies face devastating tariff increases, with synthetic textile duties alone jumping from 10% to 43%. "It's like a house of cards that will collapse," warned Bedi, predicting widespread redundancies across the textile sector.

The legislation provides eligible sub-Saharan African countries with duty-free access to the US market for more than 1800 products, with the aim of spurring economic development, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs across textiles, automotive and mining industries.

Despite historically enjoying bipartisan support, the scheduled expiration in 2025 makes the future of US–Africa relations uncertain. An attempt last year to renew AGOA for 16 years failed to reach a congressional vote, and Trump's aggressive trade stance suggests diminished political will in Washington.

The White House, US Trade Representative's office, and Speaker Johnson's office have yet to respond to requests for comment, with the administration remaining publicly silent on whether it supports an extension.

Bedi warned that AGOA's demise would paradoxically strengthen China's position, precisely the opposite of American strategic interests. "If this is taken away, by default, the business is going to go back to China," he cautioned, highlighting how the programme's end would make the US even more dependent on Asian manufacturers.

Since its launch in 2000, AGOA has allowed Kenya to export roughly billions of dollars’ worth of goods to American markets, making it a cornerstone of Kenya-US economic relations.

With just days remaining before the 30 September deadline, African manufacturers and their American partners are holding their breath, hoping Congress can find a way to preserve a partnership that has defined transatlantic trade relations for over two decades.